The Umkhonto weSizwe Party (MK Party), led by former president Jacob Zuma, is rapidly gaining traction in eThekwini following several recent by-election wins. The ANC's hold on the region is seriously at risk, according to analysts, as the local government elections in 2026 get closer. Political analysts point to a combination of factors behind the MKP’s rise, including dissatisfaction with the ANC’s service delivery, corruption, and leadership failures.

The party’s momentum is heavily driven by Zuma’s personal appeal and what some describe as "charismatic authority." “Many supporters view Jacob Zuma as a victim of an unjust government under Cyril Ramaphosa,” said University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN) political analyst Siyabonga Ntombela. A significant portion of the electorate, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal, identify with him as a champion of black economic empowerment. Ntombela went on to say that the ANC's traditional base has been further alienated by the GNU's formation with the Democratic Alliance, a party that many in the MKP view as an ideological foe.

The ANC’s vulnerability in eThekwini is clear, with councillors defecting or quietly supporting the MKP. “Some are still wearing black, green and gold, but their hearts are with the spear,” Ntombela said, warning this internal divide could have serious implications for the ANC’s campaign machinery. Ntombela made reference to statements made by Duduzile Zuma, the daughter of Zuma, that stated the party would follow her father's policies when discussing the possibility of MKP-led governance in eThekwini. He stated, "So, as it was during the time of Jacob Zuma, so will it be in eThekwini." Another analyst, Zwakele Ndlovu from the UKZN, echoed similar sentiments. He believes MKP’s popularity is deeply intertwined with Zuma’s continued presence in the political arena.

“As long as Zuma is still alive next year, the MKP will perform well,” Ndlovu said. "The bigger question is whether the MKP will survive after Zuma's death," Additionally, Ndlovu questioned the party's prospects for governance, stating, "The MKP is a faction of the ANC." So we can't expect anything different when it gains control of eThekwini.” Both analysts agree that issues like corruption and failed reform promises are central to the ANC’s declining support. “The leadership has made empty promises of self-correcting,” Ntombela said. “Like a phoenix, the ANC will have to rise from the ashes.” Despite MKP’s current momentum, Ndlovu is skeptical about its long-term future. “Zuma is the MKP. Without him, the party is doomed,” he said.